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After Mexico’s 2-0 victory over France, the picture in Group A is rather clear, and unfortunately so. Mexico moved into a first-place tie with Uruguay with four points, and those two teams play each other in the group-stage finale. If they tie, both teams will advance to the round of 16, with Uruguay winning the group and Mexico facing a likely date with Argentina, which would be a rematch of the dramatic 2006 match at that stage - won, 2-1, by Argentina on Maxi Rodríguez’s brilliant extra-time volley, the New York Daily News reported.
Here’s the quick breakdown on the Group A teams’ chances…
Uruguay: Wins group with win or tie. Finishes second with loss and goal-differential tiebreaker over France or South Africa.
Mexico: Wins group with win. Finishes second with tie or loss and goal-differential tiebreaker over France or South Africa.
France and South Africa: Must win and secure goal-differential tiebreaker over loser of Mexico-Uruguay, if there is one. The goal differentials entering the final games are: Uruguay +3, Mexico +2, France -2, South Africa -3.
If Uruguay loses 1-0 to Mexico, say, France would have to beat South Africa by four. South Africa, to advance in that situation, would need to win by at least five. Considering that France and South Africa have scored a grand total of one goal between them (Siphiwe Tshabalala’s tournament-opener for the hosts), it’s not looking good for either team.
Maybe Mexico would want to play for a win to avoid that date with Argentina, but an attacking style would leave things open for Uruguay's counterattacks, and the possibility of no second-round date at all.
As it is, we saw through the first week of the tournament that when teams play not to lose, a tie is a very easy result to get. You can’t blame Uruguay and Mexico if they go ultra-conservative for their game - the tournament is about doing what you need to do to advance, and worry about the beauty of the game later.
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